Reducing complexity and compliance costs: a simplification safe harbour for the global minimum tax

I present a simplification safe harbour based on tax administrative guidance for Pillar Two, the global minimum tax, developed together with Cedric Döllefeld, Joachim Englisch, Simon Harst and Felix Siegel. It aims at reducing unnecessary compliance costs by avoiding effective tax rate (ETR) calculations if a minimum tax of 15 per cent has already been paid. The simplification safe harbour consists of a two-level test to determine if a full GloBE ETR calculation is required from a multinational enterprise (MNE) or if a simplified ETR calculation or no calculation at all is sufficient. The test consists of a country-level test and – only if necessary – an MNE-level test. The country-level test assesses a country's tax system. It seeks to determine whether the national tax system's nominal tax rates are (too) low and whether significant deviations between a country's tax base and the GloBE income exist. The second level, the MNE-level test, is only carried out if the country-level test has identified potential ‘red flags’. Even if this second test is required, the simplification safe harbour offers a significant reduction in compliance costs. This reduction is achieved by relying on national tax data, which are readily available in firms, instead of highly adjusted accounting data.     

Beating the market with a bad predictive model

It is a common misconception that in order to make consistent profits as a trader, one needs to possess some extra information leading to an asset value estimation that is more accurate than that reflected by the current market price. While the idea makes intuitive sense and is also well substantiated by the widely popular Kelly criterion, we prove that it is generally possible to make systematic profits with a completely inferior price-predicting model. The key idea is to alter the training objective of the predictive models to explicitly decorrelate them from the market. By doing so, we can exploit inconspicuous biases in the market maker’s pricing, and profit from the inherent advantage of the market taker. We introduce the problem setting throughout the diverse domains of stock trading and sports betting to provide insights into the common underlying properties of profitable predictive models, their connections to standard portfolio optimization strategies, and the commonly overlooked advantage of the market taker. Consequently, we prove the desirability of the decorrelation objective across common market distributions, translate the concept into a practical machine learning setting, and demonstrate its viability with real-world market data.     

How important are minimum wage increases in increasing the wages of minimum wage workers?

Popular discussion presumes minimum wage increases primarily drive wage gains for minimum wage workers. We investigate this presumption using the Current Population Survey to assess the fraction of minimum wage workers receiving raises after 12 months. This fraction is moderately higher following state minimum wage increases, and positively correlated with several measures of labor market tightness. Finally, wage gains frequently follow industry and/or occupation switches, highlighting the importance of career progression for earnings growth among entry-level workers. Career progression and increases in labor demand rather than minimum wage increases appear to drive most wage gains for minimum wage workers.     

国家中长期技术创新能力的评价与排名

探讨了国家技术创新能力在中长期内如何进行评价的问题，通过理论分析构建了包括技术创新投入、技术创新产出、技术创新基础的技术创新能力评价模型，并且以G20成员国家为主要对象，在2000年至2010年的期间,对这些国家的技术创新能力进行了初探性的评估和排名，揭示了全球技术创新能力的竞争态势。     

国家中长期技术创新能力的评价与排名

探讨了国家技术创新能力在中长期内如何进行评价的问题，通过理论分析构建了包括技术创新投入、技术创新产出、技术创新基础的技术创新能力评价模型，并且以G20成员国家为主要对象，在2000年至2010年的期间，对这些国家的技术创新能力进行了初探性的评估和排名，揭示了全球技术创新能力的竞争态势。     

美国公司因进口不锈钢管质量问题在美国法院诉上海上上不锈钢管公司案评析

上海上上不锈钢管公司向北美萨勒姆钢铁公司出售不锈钢管供其在美国转售,后因质量问题,萨勒姆公司在其住所地美国新泽西州联邦地方法院对上上公司提起诉讼。上上公司依《联邦民事诉讼规则》第12(b)(2)条提起撤案动议,认为法院不具有属人管辖权,请求驳回原告起诉。法院认为上上公司与新泽西州间存在最低联系、且对其行使管辖权不违反传统的公平与实质正义观念,因此,法院驳回了上上公司的撤案动议。本文介绍了该案的基本案情、归纳了法院的裁决理由、并对本案作了简要评析。     

砂中氯离子含量检测试验室间比对的组织及结果分析

通过组织砂中氯离子含量检测的试验室间比对试验,采用稳健统计方法-中位值和标准化四分位距法和格拉布斯准则剔除离群值后经典统计法分析评价结果,期望达到检验各授权工地试验室试验检测的能力,提高各试验室检测人员检测水平,减少各试验室间在试验检测工作上差异性的目的。     

一种最小误码率约束的动态地理协作路由算法

为了提高无线多跳通信的可靠性，提出一种联合物理层和网络层设计的动态地理协作路由(DGCR)算法，推导计算了单个协作单元协作中继节点的选择区域，在该区域内选择的协作中继节点可以满足误码率要求。最佳中继节点的位置会根据实际协作中继节点的位置和目的节点的位置动态选取。仿真计算表明，该算法相比非协作路由算法和传统地理协作路由算法具有更好的误码率性能，更适用于多径条件下的应用。     

最低工资会影响空气污染吗?——来自中国企业SO2排放的证据

最低工资标准上升显著降低了中国企业的空气污染水平,在考虑内生性问题后,这一结论依然稳健。最低工资标准提升经由生产成本和生产效率渠道影响企业的空气排污水平,具体表现为,最低工资标准提升增加了企业的生产成本,进而提高了企业的空气排污水平。而最低工资标准上升提高了企业的生产效率,进一步降低了企业的空气排污水平。异质性分析显示,最低工资标准上升对空气污染的抑制效应在环境规制较强的地区和行业中更为明显,并对非国有企业、资本密集型和技术水平较高企业的空气污染水平产生了更大的抑制作用。